Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Anthony Vickers: So you still think Boro aren't scoring enough this season?


Boro are third and could seize the summit tonight - but that won’t stop fans fretting.


Pre-emptive panic is written in our DNA. Deep unease is our default.


Boro have a rock solid defence and have leaked just two goals in the nine games since the traditional post-Christmas slump kicked-in - so naturally the fears are about up front.


The nervous narrative is that Boro “don’t score enough goals”.


The fear is that all those 1-0 and 2-0 wins Boro are racking up just won’t be enough; that it could come down to goal difference or even to goals scored and that Boro trail in the wake of the current top two and would lose out statistically at the death.


But is it true? Are Boro markedly shot shy relative to their rivals?


How does the current rate of return in front of goal stack up against recent promotion sides?


And how does the haul rate against strike-forces of the recent past.


Boro's top scorers in the last 10 seasons


The first thing to be said is that Boro ARE scoring goals.


They have rattled in 15 in nine games since Christmas including two goalless draws and 2-0 win away at the Premier League champions.


That works out at a strike rate of 1.66 goals a game and if they can keep that rate going over the remaining 17 league games then they are on course to finish the season with a total of 74.


That doesn’t sound a lot.


Last year’s champions scored 83 - but Burnely finished second having scored 72 and QPR went up through the play-offs after bagging just 60 in a functional campaign.


In 2012-13 champions Cardiff finished with 82 but attritional Hull managed just 61 in second place and play-off winners Crystal Palace hit 73.


The year before it was a similar picture: Champs Reading scored just 69, second placed Southampton got 85 and play-off winners West Ham 81.


We could go on but you get the picture: Boro are on course to finish well within the normal range of goal scored for a promotion-winning side.


But it is true they are trailing some of their rivals.


Top scorers Bournemouth have scored an impressive 62 to Boro’s 46 with Watford (57), Derby (56) and Norwich (54) also ahead - but there is plenty of time to close the gap.


One of the chief fears among fans has been that Boro don’t have one of those almost extinct beasts, the “20-goal striker”.


The division’s top scorer is Daryl Murphy of Ipswich who has 18 while Derby have Chris Martin on 16, Bournemouth have Callum Wilson on 14.


Boro’s most prolific is Mackem midfield metronome Grant Leadbitter who has 11 in the league - and seven of those have been from the spot.


But does it matter who scores the goals?


Jelle Vossen doesn’t think so. Asked about Boro’s goal distribution he shrugged and said: “It is very good that I’m scoring, Lee is scoring, Patrick is scoring - but we don’t care about who gets the goals.”


Vossen netted against Charlton to take his tally to six in 12 games following his “duckskin” first for the club at Millwall in December.


© CameraSport


Jelle Vossen scores against Millwall

Bamford got the opener to make it 11 for the season and three in the last four games.


And Tomlin sealed it to take his haul to eight overall and four in the last five.


Kike, who started off with an optimistic August flurry before drying up and playing in a much deeper role, has six.


“As long as Boro win the games it doesn’t matter who scores,” said Vossen.


“Assists are just as important. It is not about individual players scoring goals.


“You win as a team and you lose as a team.”


Including cup goals, Boro already have Leadbitter (13) and Bamford (11) into double figures with both in-form Tomlinho and Kike on seven.


That is not a bad clutch of goal-getters in the team offering boss Aitor Karanka a range of real tactical options and serious strength off the bench.


Last month Boro were held to two goalless draws in a row in the league.


They dominated both games and created a shed-load of chances but couldn’t breakthrough.


That led to a ripple of anxiety in Teesside and assertions that Karanka HAD TO buy a striker before the window closed.


The coach shrugged off the questions and insisted: “I don’t need any more, I have the three best strikers in the Championship.”


That was a reference but to their individual goal hauls but how their skill-sets complemented each other and fitted the style and shape of the team.


And he added that it was only a question of time before their quality told in the scoreline.


“We have different options and I don’t think it is a problem who is playing, I think it is a problem of concentration,” he said.


“Sometimes when the chances do not go in confidence can be lower.


“But I’m not concerned. I prefer to think if we are in the position we are and our strikers aren’t scoring goals, imagine where we can be when our strikers do start scoring.”


Since then Boro have scored 10 in five so it is fair to say the concentration levels are back at the levels where the boss wants and, looking at the zest showed by Tomlin of late, confidence doesn’t seem to be a problem either.


Boro are sharing the net-busting plaudits around and that is keeping them ahead of the curve.


This team is on course not only to score enough goals to put them firmly in the promotion mix - but also to be among the top scoring Boro teams of recent times.


With a third of the term to go, Karanka’s side have already scored more than the totals for three campaigns in the past decade - the Southgate years of Premier League struggle when blunt Boro were were stuffed with international players but couldn’t get the blend right.


One year Tuncay was top scorer with eight!


The best haul in the last decade was 2005-06 when the Road to Eindhoven and an FA Cup semi-final meant Boro were faced with 60 games and so the personal goals for columns soared.


That season saw Yakubu, Mark Viduka and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink all rattled in 20 plus in total and Massimo Maccarone finished on 11 - although with the UEFA Cup goals deducted to make it a level playing field, all three dipped back below the magic mark.


Doug Moody/The Gazette Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink celebrates a goal with Mark Viduka


Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink celebrates a goal with Mark Viduka

In domestic games Yak got 19, Jimmy 17 and Viduka 16. Still an impressive haul of course.


But in the league it was a bit of a grind and Boro scored just 48 goals and the top scorer was Yakubu with 13 and the only other player in double figures was Jimmy on 10.


In the year played in the shadows of relegation the best has been the 68 scored in 2010-11 the campaign salvaged by Tony Mowbray when a late flourish sent the side soaring up the table.


Scott McDonald topped the charts with 14 and Leroy Lita was just behind him on 12.


In most seasons over the past decade the bulk of the goals have come from just two or three players.


In 2006-07, for example, Viduka had 19 and Yakubu 16 - but the next best was Julio Arca with three.


And in 2011-12 Marvin Emnes got 18, Lukas Jutkiewicz 12 and McDonald nine but the next best was Barry Robson with three.


Now Boro have a decent chance of getting five players into double figures.


Leadbitter and Bamford are already there, with Kike and Tomlin three away and Vossen four.


That strikes me as healthy. And a broad-based strategy that doesn’t gamble on one player being crocked.


Goals wise, Boro are on target.



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