LUCKNOW: How to tackle the scare called Modi? This will be the question haunting the Muslims when they go out to vote over the next one and half months. Other factors like ‘Anger with SP’, ‘Confusion about an alternative’ and ‘despair over their own plight’ are there, but nothing unites the community as strongly as the urge to stop Modi.
“Fear psychosis is the single most important factor which decides where do Muslim votes go,” says Syed Hussain Afasar, a veteran journalist and keen observer of UP politics. So, the fear generally overpowers the feeling of despair when it comes to pressing the EVM button. Like all post-Babri elections, this time too it’s the saffron family – this time all charged up under Narendra Modi – which is the clear and present danger for the community. An enemy’s enemy is a friend. But who is the most preferred enemy’s enemy in this case? The community is confused.
In Azizpur village of Shamli, ravaged by riots last year, ‘despair’ is more apt to describe the feeling of local Muslims than ‘anger’ — despair over their unchanged plight for decades and near total absence of the so-called signs of development.
“Our village doesn’t even have power connection,” says Samiullah, 72, of Azizpur. It’s not that the din of elections has made him and others in the village forget the pain of riots but this is the time when they can raise the issues of their subsistence. Their choice of parties may differ from constituency to constituency, but there is a common discontent over the condition of the community. The other common thread of course is Modi and the bogey of BJP.
“Ab Modi aanewala hai…diquat yeh hai ki usko rokne ke liye koi toh ho (Now Modi is about to become MP but the problem is that there is no one to stop him),” says Firoz of Kohadapeer, a Muslim-dominated locality in Bareilly. The question ‘who will stop Modi’ seems to be on top of the checklist of a common Muslim voter. That may result in different voting pattern in the community in different constituency. If overall it helps one party, that will be just by default.
Pollsters say the community has the power to influence the result in over than 50% seats in the state. All these constituencies have a Muslim population of 15% or more. There is another side of it: The minority support appears more formidable in those constituencies which have a moderate Muslim presence – between 8% and 13% as the compared to the ones where the community’s presence is over 20%.
“All big parties try to field a Muslim candidate in the constituency with a sizable minority presence. So the votes get divided and it helps the BJP candidate. But in the constituency with moderate Muslim population, the community has fewer options so they vote en masse,” says a political observer.
In 2012 assembly election, the Samajwadi Party was an overwhelming favourite of the community. But, a spate of riots – particularly in Muzaffarnagar which claimed 60 lives – has made it apprehensive. And it’s not just riots. It’s also about law and order. “Law and order during the Mayawati was far better than what it is these days,” says Imtiyaz, a lecturer at a government inter college in Muzaffarnagar. Should one assume then SP’s loss is BSP’s gain? Hardly.
“Mayawati is yet to win the complete trust of Muslims,” Afsar says “the community always think of her as someone who had a tie-up with saffron forces thrice in the past. As for Mulayam, despite the anger, the community feels a certain level of comfort”, he adds. So, is the community in mood to kiss and makeup with him? As soon as one tries to form an opinion, it gets shredded into pieces as one steps into another village in another district.
“Mulayam too has not lived up to his promise. He has failed to withdraw cases and release innocent Muslim youths languishing in jail on false terror charges,” says Athar, a student in Bareilly.
Among other options, Congress’s own resigned state has somewhat driven the community away. But, some of its candidates might earn the Muslims’ sympathy on purely personal basis. Post riots, Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a party of jats, seems to have taken for granted that it won’t get the minority support. So, it has not put up a single Muslim candidate.
The Muslim mind has always been a riddle for politicians and political pundits. This time this riddle has got trickier. Will the first phase on April 10, with constituencies having large presence of minorities, throw some light? Wait and watch.
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