Friday, February 6, 2015

Have Boro fared better against the Championship's flyers or strugglers?


After busting Brentford’s promotion bubble last weekend, Boro now face a run of matches against teams battling at the wrong end of the table.


In fact, Boro’s next eight Championship duels are against teams outside of the top eight.


Aitor Karanka’s side face struggling Charlton at the Riverside tomorrow, the start of a busy schedule that sees Boro play nine matches in 28 days.


Boro face Blackpool (a), Birmingham (a), Leeds (h), Bolton (h), Sheffield Wednesday (a), Millwall (h) and Nottingham Forest (a) in the next four weeks, as well as the FA Cup clash at Arsenal.


On paper, every league game coming up looks winnable, but of course it’s never as easy as that.


But how have Boro fared against the division’s bottom eight this season?


In short, they’ve done very well. The bottom eight, as things stand, are Blackpool, Wigan, Millwall, Brighton, Rotherham, Leeds, Charlton and Huddersfield.


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Aitor Karanka’s side have played all of them once, Huddersfield the only side that Boro have faced twice.


From those nine matches Boro have won five (Millwall, Brighton, Rotherham, Huddersfield x 2) and accumulated 18 points - a record of two points per game.


There have been three draws (Blackpool, Wigan, Charlton) and the one defeat, against Leeds at Elland Road back in August.


It makes happy reading for Boro, having scored 16 goals and conceded only eight in those matches.



Extending that to the entire bottom half of the Championship, Boro sit fourth in the form table against the division’s strugglers.


But 31 points from 15 matches is hardly something to be sniffed at. Watford have picked up 37 points (playing one game more), Bournemouth 35 and Ipswich 33 (having played one game more).


So if Boro beat Charlton tomorrow, that means they’ve picked up 34 points from 16 matches against the Championship’s bottom half. Solid.


What about the other myth, that Boro don’t often beat their promotion rivals?


Well it’s a similar story against the top eight - currently Bournemouth, Derby, Ipswich, Brentford, Watford, Wolves and Norwich.


Boro have played eight matches against their fellow promotion hopefuls, picking up 14 points.


They have notched four wins, against Derby, Norwich and twice against Brentford, drawn against Bournemouth and Watford, and lost at Ipswich and Wolves.


Grant Leadbitter celebrates after putting Boro ahead at Brentford


Karanka’s side have found the net 12 times against the top eight, conceding only five. It makes pretty impressive reading.


Extending that to the entire top half, and Boro are clearly not struggling to rise to the big occasion.


Boro are second in the form league against the Championship’s top 12, picking up 22 points from their 13 matches.


Only Bournemouth have picked up more points, having accumulated 25 points but playing one match more.


So what does all of this mean?


In essence, it proves that Boro do show that “consistency” that Karanka so often talks about. Whether they are up against a team challenging for promotion, or a team battling relegation, Boro tend to average something close to two points per game.


If that remains the case, Boro would find themselves on around 92 points at the end of the season, from the 46 games played.


Martin Rickett/PA Wire


And in previous years, that total would comfortably have earned them promotion.


Last season Burnley finished second in the Championship on 93 points, with champions Leicester running away at the summit with 102 points.


In the 2012/13 season, 92 points would have won Boro the league, ahead of the actual champions Cardiff on 87 points.


The year before? That same number would again have won you the Championship crown, ahead of Reading (89 pts) and Southampton (88 pts).


If Boro continue in the same way, it could be a special season on Teesside.



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