2014 on course to be hottest year ever recorded

In another chilling reminder that the Earth is heating up, data just released shows 2014 is on course to be the hottest year since global records began in 1880.

Temperatures analysed by the US’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows 2014 will beat 2010 as the hottest year on record even if global temperatures in November and December maintain their 21st century average.

The news is expected to lend urgency to global negotiations aimed at capping carbon emissions in the foreseeable future, which scientists say is the leading cause of global warming.

NOAA on Saturday released the global average temperature for October this year, showing it was the hottest October on record, with the average temperature 0.74 degrees Celsius higher the month’s average in the 20th century. This was the third consecutive month to shatter temperature records.

“The record high October temperature was driven by warmth across the globe over both the land and ocean and was fairly evenly distributed between the northern and southern hemispheres. The southern hemisphere was record warm overall…while the northern hemisphere was third warmest on record,” a NOAA release said.

The 10 warmest years on record have all come after 1997. The hottest single year till date was 2010, followed by 2005, 1998, 2003, and 2013.

NOAA’s analysis breaks down global temperatures into two categories — land and ocean — and then arrives at an average that includes both. The high temperatures in October were recorded across both land and sea.

The surface temperature on land approached an important scientific benchmark. It was almost 2 degrees Celsius higher than the 20th century average for October of 9.3 degrees.

Scientists have long predicted that a change in global average temperature of just 2 to 3 degrees higher could spell disaster for the planet, contributing to catastrophic storms, sea level rise, dangerous storm surges and melting polar ice.

According to the non-binding international agreement on climate change — the Copenhagen Accord, reached in 2009 — any temperature increase above the 2 degree Celsius mark is “dangerous.”

NOAA said the ocean temperatures were also the warmest on record in October. “Record warmth for the year-to-date was particularly notable across much of northern and western Europe, parts of Far East Russia, and large areas of the northeastern and western equatorial Pacific Ocean,” it said.

“It is also notable that record warmth was observed in at least some areas of every continent and major ocean basin around the world,” the agency said.

Of particular note, several countries have already seen an average temperature increase of more than 2 degrees Celsius in October 2014 compared to 20th century averages, including Australia, Germany, France, Switzerland and Sweden.